南洋老钱

干货

Worth saving — long-form deep dives on CPF, SRS, ABSD, family offices, property.

A sumi-e ink cartoon of an old bespectacled merchant at a harbor gazing at a distant ship, holding a torn betting slip in one hand and a compass in the other, while overhead a single star is partially obscured by drifting clouds shaped like whispering faces, with an abacus abandoned at his feet.

我在英国的婚礼上赌挪威赢，输了 500 块之后想通的一件事

我在敌营里偷偷押注挪威，结果被队友之间的一记"不传球"教育了。所有分析都能算，唯独人心算不准——这就是为什么 Ben Graham 要发明"安全边际"这四个字。

An old bespectacled merchant in a long robe standing inside a winding maze-like queue of faceless travelers waiting for an unseen ride, holding a brass ear-trumpet up toward a distant loudspeaker on a wooden post, while two or three small figures quietly slip out through a side gap carrying their bundles, sumi-e ink wash style with satirical tension.

木乃伊排队定律：股市崩盘前，那些悄悄离开队伍的人

真正的崩盘不是一个事件，是一个排队的队伍慢慢散掉的过程。看懂队伍里那几种人的动作，比看 K 线管用。

An old bespectacled merchant in long robes stands on a 19th-century harbor pier holding a near-empty oil lamp, watching a fleet of brightly lit ships sail away while a faded sign on the dock reads "Free Coal Today" in chipped paint, with a single steady star above the mast and a tattered ledger at his feet.

便宜的算力，是这个时代的"廉价石油"

每一次技术革命的开头都有一段"白给"的蜜月期——铁路、电力、石油、互联网带宽，都是这么过来的。蜜月一结束，账单就来了。今天 AI 算力正在走完同一条路。

A sumi-e cartoon of an old Chinese merchant standing at a crossroads with three signposts pointing to a smoky factory town, a tropical port with cargo cranes, and a quiet glass tower with an abacus on its rooftop, while he clutches a heavy bag of coins and squints at the tower.

"中国+1" 这盘棋，新加坡其实是收银台

这两年所有人都在讲 "China+1"，可大多数中国老板自己都没真正想明白这个 "+1" 到底加的是什么。今天老张就把这层窗户纸捅破——你以为是搬厂，其实是搬钱包。

A sumi-ink editorial cartoon of a soft-bellied father in a suit secretly whispering to a mother behind a door, while a chubby child waits anxiously holding a piggy bank, with a doctor's scale and a sugar jar on the table, ink-wash style with satirical tension

"高利率再撑一阵子"——这阵风为什么吹不走

华尔街喊了三年"higher for longer"，每次都说快降了，每次又往后挪。这不是预测错——这是美国系统的体质病。看懂这个，你在新加坡的钱该怎么摆，答案就清楚了。

A sumi-e cartoon scene of a well-dressed merchant in a small tidy harbor office holding a tiny abacus and an AI-themed pamphlet, looking nervously across the water at a vast distant shore where countless tiny figures on scooters race in frantic circles delivering boxes, while a giant invisible wind blows golden coins from the far shore toward his harbor — satirical tension between the orderly small hub and the overwhelming chaotic productivity beyond.

外卖比咖啡还便宜的国家，你拿什么跟它卷

中文互联网上有个段子："女大学生毕业做直播，累了就点外卖；男大学生送外卖，累了就看看直播。"这句话比任何宏观报告都说清了一件事——别再以为新加坡的 AI 补贴能让你"打回去"。

A sumi-e cartoon of an old harbor counting house at dawn, where a nervous clerk hides a heavy ledger under his coat while sneaking onto a departing junk ship, as an older bespectacled merchant arrives at the empty desk holding a lantern to inspect rows of dusty unsold cargo crates labeled with chalk prices.

华尔街的真相：一个刚被开除的年轻人告诉我的

电影里的华尔街之狼是导演拍来卖票的。真实的华尔街是一群盯着屏幕、用 Bloomberg 跟邻座聊天、把亏损藏到下一份工作的中年人。这条定律叫"代理人困境"，三百年没变过。

A sumi-e cartoon of an old harbor where a weathered merchant in round glasses calmly eats fries from a paper bag while watching a chaotic regatta of fancy ships sinking in the distance, with a single steady lighthouse shaped like the golden arches in the background.

麦当劳为什么是食物界的标普500

从童年记忆里的薯条味，到家族办公室的资产配置——麦当劳教给我们的，其实是一条关于"无聊但稳定"的财富定律。

An old bespectacled merchant at a misty harbor inspecting four different sailing ships tied to the same dock, each ship's sails made from different materials — newspaper, academic scrolls, chat letters, and tweets fluttering in the wind — with a single guiding star labeled "training data" above them in sumi-e ink style.

ChatGPT 不是 AI，它只是你认识的那个 AI

SME 老板只用 ChatGPT，就像 1995 年只用雅虎搜索一样。问题不在于模型，问题在于你不知道工具是被什么"水"养大的——而水的来源，决定了它最擅长什么。

A sumi-e cartoon of a sweating Chinese SME boss being squeezed out of a giant pressure cooker labeled in ink characters, landing gently on a small tidy island marked with a Merlion, while other bosses queue behind him still inside the cooker, satirical and slightly absurd

不是中国人在卷新加坡，是中国把"卷"出口到全世界

大家都在说中国财富往新加坡搬家。但老张想反过来问一句——这阵风到底吹多久，取决于一件事：是新加坡太松，还是中国太紧？

An old bearded patriarch in a Victorian waistcoat stands proudly beside a giant Monopoly board covered in red hotels, while his bored grandson slouches in a chair flipping a coin, and behind them a single star shines over a distant empty harbor where a new tiny boat waits to be sailed, drawn in satirical sumi-e cartoon style.

三代人的大富翁：为什么继承人总是无聊到把棋盘掀掉

富不过三代不是诅咒，是大富翁规则的必然。当你把酒店全都建好交给下一代，他唯一能做的事，就是无聊。