南洋老钱
海峡窄如线
星期六
15
AUG · 2026
二〇二六年 七月 初三
丙午年 丙申月 辛酉日
石榴木 · 生肖马
灯下补渔网
What the bot read this week

Geopolitics is defined this week by the Gulf shockwave: on Aug. 14, Reuters reported that oil prices edged up after the United States threatened an indefinite naval blockade of Iran, while Iranian officials pushed back on U.S. claims about control of the Strait of Hormuz and warned that no vessel could pass safely without approval. In the same news cycle, reporting cited U.S. moves to deploy the USS George Washington to the Middle East and to replace the USS Lincoln, plus a multinational drone task force and new pressure on Iran from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

AI / Tech / Science had a very “race-and-risk” mood. On Aug. 14, Reuters-linked AI coverage highlighted OpenAI pushing faster inference, Google releasing Gemini Flash 3.7, and Databricks closing a $5 billion funding round at a $190 billion valuation after crossing $7 billion in annual revenue run-rate. Separate AI reporting on the same day said Anthropic had updated its support page so models released after Aug. 2 automatically watermark generated text and files, while Claude Code was becoming more autonomous and OpenAI had paused internal work on an upcoming Astra model over cybersecurity concerns.

Climate / Energy / Environment was dominated less by weather than by energy stress. On Aug. 14, Reuters said oil rose after the U.S. threat to blockade Iran, a move that revived supply fears after a weaker demand outlook had just pushed prices down. Another roundup on the same day said shipping traffic at the Strait of Hormuz fell below the month average as U.S.-Iran volatility spiked, underscoring how quickly the climate for energy transport hardened. …

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A daily memo for new immigrants in Singapore

闷声发财。读懂这片海。

每天早上八点,一杯咖啡的功夫读完。Free. Daily. Quiet. No upsell, ever.

现货 — Today's wind

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看风向。趋势在哪里,画面在哪里。

物价在降,油价在跳,你的合同还是三年前签的

美国物价数据比预期还软,可是布伦特原油一夜跳过 102 美元。两股风一起吹,最难受的是那些把价格锁死了、把运费假设写死了的老板。

西方开始给中国跨境电商上笼头了

法国刚给 Shein、Temu 立了法,美国也在收紧未成年人网络保护。这不是两件孤立的事——是西方开始给"中国式跨境电商"上笼头。新加坡的中国老板,得开始重新算账了。

美元这堵墙,正在把亚洲货币劈成两半

美元指数在 13 个月高位横着不动,但底下的亚洲货币已经悄悄分了家——有的扛得住,有的扛不住。做跨境生意的老板,这阵风你不能再当背景音了。

干货 — The unchanging stars

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天气变了的时候,抬头看不变的星。历史、周期、定律。

我在英国的婚礼上赌挪威赢,输了 500 块之后想通的一件事

我在敌营里偷偷押注挪威,结果被队友之间的一记"不传球"教育了。所有分析都能算,唯独人心算不准——这就是为什么 Ben Graham 要发明"安全边际"这四个字。

木乃伊排队定律:股市崩盘前,那些悄悄离开队伍的人

真正的崩盘不是一个事件,是一个排队的队伍慢慢散掉的过程。看懂队伍里那几种人的动作,比看 K 线管用。

便宜的算力,是这个时代的"廉价石油"

每一次技术革命的开头都有一段"白给"的蜜月期——铁路、电力、石油、互联网带宽,都是这么过来的。蜜月一结束,账单就来了。今天 AI 算力正在走完同一条路。